Thursday, January 02, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Mercury

The reckoning

2003 will bring more homeless, less water and all the city politics you can handle

Happy new year. Or so we hope.

Happy or not, 2003 is already shaping up to be an interesting year on the national front. Predicting the big stories on that front is cake. President Bush will pursue unfinished biz with the "axis of evil" of Iraq, Iran and North Korea, and a war with Iraq is almost a certainty. Closer to home, the economy, still limping from Sept. 11, 2001, and a host of corporate scandals a la Enron, will get some TLC from the feds. Or not. Finally, the '04 presidential race will begin in earnest, as Democrats scramble for a viable candidate in hopes of easing the hurt of the GOP's '02 midterm sweep.

Tougher to predict is what will happen in Nevada. Undaunted, we gazed into our crystal balls and asked: Will Nevada Power go public? Will the state Legislature put the brakes on runaway growth? Will Mayor Goodman announce plans to become Senator Goodman? Will the ever-youthful Charo reveal herself to be a Raelian clone?

Who knows? We do, actually. Here are the Mercury's predictions for 2003.

HOT ISSUES

Hope you don't mind showering with a friend...

Las Vegas used to be this little dirt spit of a town, too hot in the summer, butt cold in the winter and pretty nice in between. A fun place, too, once the gambling and a-whoring began in earnest. It grew big, and bigger and just keeps on growing. And while back in 1929, when the "law of the river" was signed between seven Western states, 300,000 acre-feet from the Colorado River seemed like a decent allotment for Nevada, now it's becoming grossly inadequate. The state's begun to take 30,000 acre-feet over its allotment, and doubtless will need more in the future. So, Southern Nevada's been storing water, and still has an eye on rural water prospects. Also, Southern California's supposed to be tempering its indulgence in Colorado River water, having exceeded its allotment by 800,000 acre-feet, and its big water agencies have been working out a deal with some farmers to buy their water instead. However, Interior Secretary Gale Norton said if the farmers and the agencies in California didn't seal their agreement by Dec. 31, Nevada wouldn't get its 30,000 acre-feet surplus. In that event, Nevada can resort to drawing from the 250,000 acre-feet it has stored underground. And it still would be getting return-flow credits of 250,000 acre-feet from the river.

But then there's the drought--the real monster facing Nevada. Even if Southern Nevada gets its surplus, it'll still be sucking more sand than water. Niel Laudati, spokesman for the Southern Nevada Water Authority, says it would take a couple of years of above-average snowpack in the Rockies for Lake Mead to fill back up.

Prediction? Well, with growth a train on a runaway track, drought a natural recurrence and the Colorado just a river, after all, our prediction for 2003 and beyond is that everyone will finally be forced to learn how to live in the goddamn desert: too-hot summers, butt-cold winters, more water conservation, tougher enforcement on water wasters, higher water rates for big users, more desert-tolerant and low-water-using landscaping, and maybe--gasp--a plan to not grow beyond our means.--Heidi Walters

At last, power to the people

Nevada Power will be a publicly owned utility by the end of this year.

Not because of the upcoming Legislature, where wolves are waiting in the wings to bury any enabling bills. Actually, the only legislation that really matters is a prohibition on hostile takeovers by governments. That law is set to expire next summer, clearing the way for the Southern Nevada Water Authority to buy the struggling utility for $3.1 billion.

The real stimulus will be the power company's crushing debt load that will come due in 2003. State Consumer Advocate Tim Hay estimates the company will have to refinance $700 million in debt--equal to more than a fifth of its total assets--during the first three-quarters of the year.

And thanks to the company's junk bond status, Nevada Power is already paying nearly three times the going interest rate. In November, it financed a $250 million bond at 2.1 percent. In contrast, Idaho Power financed a similar bond at 4 percent.

"We make the argument that the company's financial condition, its bad credit quality, is the result of bad business practices," Hay says.

Last spring, the company ran into furious public opposition over a $922 million rate hike request, which spurred the Clark County Commission to place the public takeover question on the ballot. Fifty-seven percent of voters endorsed the idea.

Nevada Power officials have insisted the company is not for sale, but that could change amid another round of rate hike requests to cover a mountain of debt. And that portends another feeding frenzy at the Public Utilities Commission. A more reasonable solution for the company and its stockholders is to sell out.--Larry Wills

Get out your wallet

The Nevada Legislature will raise taxes in 2003. The state doesn't have enough money to operate. The conservatives can nitpick the existing budget to death and there still will be a massive deficit. So taxes will be raised. The question that's not so clear is which taxes will be raised. The governor's task force suggested the Legislature impose a couple of new taxes: one on business, the other on those of us who want to amuse ourselves by going to a movie or whatever. Some form of both will pass, despite the ridiculous stance of Nevada businesses that they are being unfairly burdened. A small property tax hike also is likely. But it still won't be enough. The most likely scenario is that lawmakers will manipulate the numbers until the revenues and expenditures are even--even if little of it is based in reality. Either way, you might want to save a few dollars now, because you'll be paying more in 2003.--Geoff Schumacher

More homeless, less help

It's been a terrible year to be homeless in the Las Vegas Valley: homeless people dying cold and alone in the streets, homeless people being hustled from one shitty sidewalk to another and arrested for "loitering" in the official "homeless corridor," and the bureaucracy that's supposed to help people in trouble getting more layered and inefficient. And 2003 might just be more of the same, says Linda Lera-Randle El, a homeless advocate.

"Unless something magical happens, as far as people's thought patterns on the homeless, probably not a lot is going to happen" to make the situation any better, she says. "We'll probably have more aesthetically pleasing facilities and plush landscaping, but we won't see the enhancement of the existing programs."

It might even get worse: "The homeless population is definitely growing," El says, "and if the economy doesn't improve and if the airlines continue to downsize, then we're going to increase the population on the front end. And we're still dealing with [the existing population]. I mean, we've chopped down two forests just in the paperwork. We could've built affordable housing from here to Timbuktu with that money."

Prediction: More homeless, more clearcutting, more flamboyantly hateful (but at least spotlighting) gestures from Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, more responsibility-shunning non-gestures from the other cities in the valley, and more timidity all around.--Heidi Walters

Maybe runaway growth ain't so great...

Remember the old "ring around the valley" proposal that would have placed modest controls on runaway growth in Southern Nevada? The plan, touted a few years ago by state Sen. Dina Titus, was crushed at the Legislature by the usual gang of pro-growth political forces. But now, with traffic congestion, dirtier air, water shortages, crowded schools and all the other notable declines in our quality of life, there may be more of an appetite for getting some sort of handle on our explosive growth. Titus, who has expressed an interest in running for governor, is likely to raise the issue during the upcoming legislative session, although the "ring" proposal may not be part of her plan.

Prediction: Don't hold your breath.--George Knapp

POLITICS

Sen. Reid also rises

Write it down. Sen. Harry Reid will assume the top Democratic Party leadership position in the U.S. Senate. Reid already has the votes wrapped up to become minority leader. The only thing holding him back is an announcement by Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota that he will run for president. Washington insiders say Daschle has made up his mind to run and an announcement is forthcoming. Despite his power and influence, though, Reid will be running scared, as usual. Political junkies believe his office doesn't do a very good job of explaining to Nevadans the many things he's been able to accomplish for the state. Expect to see Reid staffers do a much better job of touting the boss' accomplishments during 2003.

As a corollary to these predictions, Rep. Jim Gibbons can expect phone calls from the White House asking him to run against Reid in 2004. In fact, Gibbons has already taken steps to form an exploratory committee. It would be tough for a loyal Republican to say no to his president, but Gibbons has a good relationship with Reid. What's more, there are some in his party who want him to run for governor, not U.S. Senate.--George Knapp

Goodman stays put

Citing public approval ratings well into the 80 percent range, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman will easily win re-election in the spring municipal election.

Goodman also will become deeply involved in legislative matters--leading the city's lobbying team during the 120-day session in Carson City--and create an even stronger leadership image as the state's Democratic Party front-runner, a status that may propel him to challenge Republican U.S. John Ensign in 2006.--Fred Couzens

Iron Mike (McDonald) keeps his title

Las Vegas Councilman Michael McDonald will be a strong favorite for re-election in 2003, despite the ethics issues raised against him over the past two years. McDonald may not be a media darling, but he is a master of "pothole politics," that is, he does a creditable job of paying attention to constituent needs. He is particularly strong with seniors in his ward, plus he's managed to keep his profile low and his nose clean for the past several months.

What's more, informed sources say McDonald has hired powerhouse political consultant Kent Oram to run his re-election campaign. Potential opponents would have strong issues to raise against McDonald but it would be very tough for anyone to beat the incumbent.--George Knapp

Clark County gets in the redevelopment game

Look for Clark County to be well on the way toward creating its own redevelopment agency in 2003, naming Winchester--the site of the "blighted" Commercial Center shopping center--as its first target area for improvements. Although eminent domain would be used only as a last resort, expect a well-known local retail center developer, such as Hank Gordon or Steven Molasky, to make overtures to acquire the 35-acre center through a newly formed limited liability company.--Fred Couzens

Shakeups at City Hall?

Las Vegas Office of Business Development Director Lesa Coder will come under increasing political pressure in 2003 because of several "near-misses" in the past couple of years, but she may very well end up where she left off--or just plain left.

A recent Las Vegas city manager and now assistant county manager, Virginia Valentine, will recommend her former department head to become the first redevelopment agency director for Clark County--the government entity she left as assistant director for current planning in 1999.

Also, look for the Southern Nevada Building Trades Council to consider filing a lawsuit against the Las Vegas Redevelopment Agency for its creation of nonprofit organizations and limited liability companies that can circumvent actions--such as signing nonunion contracts for the construction of parking garages and other agency-owned facilities--that are normally mandated of municipalities. The city has formed at least four such nonmunicipal corporations in recent years to acquire--but not yet develop--downtown landholdings on Third Street and the Union Pacific acreage west of Main Street.--Fred Couzens

ONGOING STORIES

The final frontier begins in North Las Vegas

Expect some major announcements in the coming year about efforts to develop and commercialize outer space, and the news will be emanating from North Las Vegas. As the Mercury has reported, local businessman Robert Bigelow has pumped millions of dollars into his Bigelow Aerospace facility in NLV. His team has designed and is currently building a revolutionary space habitat component that might have a profound impact on the costs of commercializing space. For the past several months, Bigelow has been mum on what progress his company has made, but that is likely to change in the new year. Bigelow and his top executives made a trip to Russia earlier this year to confer with Russian space officials. They could have a blockbuster announcement during the first six months of 2003.--George Knapp

Murphy and Tabish's day in court--again

Attorneys for Ted Binion murder defendants Sandy Murphy and Rick Tabish are preparing a bloodcurdling set of motions that will allege a pattern of professional misconduct on the part of the original prosecution team. The defense lawyers have been collecting affidavits from trial witnesses who reportedly will allege that the state tried to hide information that might have been favorable to the defense. At least one witness is ready to proclaim that he was told to keep his mouth shut about information he had that might have helped to clear Murphy. Informed sources say the motion alleging prosecutorial misconduct could contain more than a dozen purported acts of deceit on the part of the state. The motion will be filed no matter how the state Supreme Court rules on the defendants' original appeal.--George Knapp

Nursing crisis to worsen

With the completion of four new hospitals--three in the southwest valley alone--scheduled for 2003 and early 2004, Las Vegas' nursing shortage could turn into a crisis of life-threatening proportions.

The 10 existing hospitals in Clark County--already facing a shortfall of nearly 1,000 registered and practical nurses and nursing assistants--will face even stiffer competition for talent in one of the nation's fastest-growing occupations. According to state figures, registered nurses recruited from out of state will earn about $55,000 each year--less than a carpet installer, but twice as much as a telemarketer.--Fred Couzens

Board of Regents overhaul

The university Board of Regents looked more ridiculous than usual recently. Regent Linda Howard announced she's owed an apology because her racist colleagues singled her out for criticism for wanting to see personnel files of bunches of UNLV students and employees. But consider: The regents accepted the resignation of Nevada State College President Richard Moore after several years of corruption that everyone in town knew about but them, and the Legislature will consider bills to reduce the board's size and make it appointive. Expect regents to keep behaving stupidly and legislators to do what they hate: Take away the public's right to vote for a position by moving to amend the Nevada Constitution.--Michael Green

Nevada State College is (barely) saved by the bell

This year, Nevada State College opened with 116 students. It's a bust, a waste of money--and the anticipated community excitement and donations in Henderson have yet to materialize. Gov. Kenny Guinn has told several officials he wants to kill it. No doubt he does. But look for him to cut a deal with Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, the school's protector and only legislative supporter. Perkins will back off on some aspect of Guinn's tax package in return for keeping his pork barrel school open. Or Perkins will cut a similar deal with state Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, as he tried to do last session.--Michael Green

ARTS AND CULTURE

Goodbye, Guggenheim

The recent announcement that the Guggenheim Las Vegas was merely closing its "big box" space while it comes up with sponsorship for a new exhibition sounded the death knell for the museum. The big box will never reopen as an art venue, and the Venetian--to whom the Guggenheim owes a great deal of money--will likely turn it into a giant nightclub or some other hopefully profitable venture. The Venetian winds up a winner from the debacle: It can point to the smaller Guggenheim Hermitage space as a winner that's more in tune with the kind of fine art experience (intimate, manageable, populist) that tourists desire. The loser will be the Guggenheim, particularly Thomas Krens, for whom the loss of the big box will be another humiliating blow for the once-ambitious, go-getting museum impresario.--Gregory Crosby

Theaters play it safe

The economy, which has been uncertain for more than a year and a half, has forced Las Vegans to be more mindful of their disposable income. As a result, many of the local theaters will be playing it safe in 2003, sticking to well-known musicals such as Oklahoma and Neil Simon comedies such as Lost In Yonkers. Unless the recession does an about-face, look for the fall season to produce just as timidly as the spring and summer. But as long as the shows are good, the older audiences will continue to nostalgically flock to the community playhouses.--Erin Auerbach

One all-ages venue to rule them all

The death of all-ages rock clubs Tremorz and The Castle last year will give serious pause to any would-be promoters looking to open a mid-size venue that caters to the under-21 set. And with the talent from both those defunct clubs either pursuing other schemes or putting their energy into the Huntridge, expect the tried-and-true historic movie theater to gather serious momentum in 2003. Not only will the venue--boasting a better sound system and biz-savvy operators--compete handily with its closest rival, the House of Blues, for national acts, it will continue to get its feet wet with local shows, focusing on local brand names that can draw decent numbers (as with recent shows by the Happy Campers and this week's Curl Up and Die show).--Andrew Kiraly