Thursday, July 31, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Mercury

Backstory: The political future is clouded

By Michael Green

Thanks to the aboveground atomic tests of the 1950s, Nevadans are familiar with fallout and its effects. But politically, the fallout from the legislative session could be truly nuclear.

Last week, Brother Knappster warned us about the 2005 Legislature. New expenditures await. The state keeps growing--including more seniors who may not want to vote for taxes but may need more health care sooner than us whippersnappers. Thanks to Bill Clinton making deals with the devil and George W. Bush being the devil, the burden on the states is growing. And the 15 Assembly Republicans who supported the biggest tax increase in state history--they wanted $704 million, remember?--expect to be back, determined to let no child get ahead.

So, what will happen in 2005? Brace yourself.

Granting that he seems coy about it right now, state Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio is almost certain not to return. He's newly married and been around long enough to provide firsthand accounts of Benjamin Franklin's misspent youth, and he just doesn't need to deal with Republican colleagues who make his right-wing views look almost left-wing. He tried mightily during this session to make sense and compromises, none of which probably would have been necessary if he had done his job right over the past decade.

His likely successor as leader seems to be Mark Amodei of Carson City. On the plus side with other Republicans, Gov. Kenny Guinn is mad at Amodei for disagreeing with his tax package. On the minus side, gaming reportedly has him on its hit list for wanting to tax it more heavily.

Another factor is whether Clark County Republicans finally will stand up on their hind legs and do what they should have done a decade ago: demand that the leader come from Nevada's most populous region. But who?

Ray Rawson would seem logical--a senior, Mormon, Las Vegas Republican. But he may bow out or face a primary challenge from Assemblyman Bob Beers, who no doubt views Rawson as raw meat. Rawson broke with several Southern Nevada Republicans on the tax issue; he once tried to take on Raggio's vacuum as it sucked Las Vegas money to Reno, but now he may seem too closely aligned with yesterday.

Besides, whichever Republican runs the Senate caucus may be minority leader. It isn't too far-fetched to think voters will punish incumbents--not so much for the tax hike as for the Legislature's failings. That poses a greater problem for Democrats than for Republicans, though. Only half the state Senate is up for grabs, but the whole Assembly will be on the ballot, and in several Democratic districts Republicans have been gaining ground. Richard Perkins wants to be governor, but first he needs to make sure he returns as Assembly speaker--which isn't a lock.

So, the whole statehouse could go Republican. Unfortunately for that party, it doesn't consider the governor a Republican. Guinn was right: Businesses other than gaming should bear the tax burden. But he handled the Legislature as subtly as a 5-year-old attacks an ice cream cone. He probably has destroyed himself with his own party.

If you think that puts Guinn in a strange position, it gets stranger. Even if MGM Mirage resigned from every organization in Nevada except the Lions Club (that's a pun, but you have to look for it), gaming remains Nevada's dominant industry and united against too much taxation. That merely makes it like every other business in the world. But many legislators are so angry at gaming and its representatives, they would be happy to mark all the cards, rig the slot machines and spit in the volcanoes and fountains.

The tax package the Legislature passed did too little damage to other businesses and too much to gaming for the taste of folks along the Strip. But what about the folks in Summerlin, Green Valley, Boulder City, West Las Vegas, downtown Las Vegas and possibly even Searchlight and Mesquite? Polls consistently have shown voters want no new taxes--a shocker--but if they must be, let gaming bear the brunt of it. Right or wrong, that's what the people want. As the hysterical critics of the Nevada Supreme Court will tell you, whatever the people want, the people should have, because they are right.

The gaming industry could be in the unpleasant position of being not the wire-puller, but wired to the electric chair. It isn't hard to imagine a candidate running against casino owners in 2004 and winning. That would put the candidate in the position of supporting higher gaming taxes--if more taxes will be needed, and they will be.

That's because there will be another crisis. Not to be Chicken Little and claim the sky is falling, but two factors make this likely. One, Guinn still is governor. Two, the tax structure still relies too heavily on regressive and service taxes, both of which suffer in times of economic trouble and must be projected. Nevada remains in its rut.

But gaming works hand-in-glove with the Culinary Union. And both the Culinary and teachers union tend to support Democrats, who tended to be better allies of Guinn's than his fellow Republicans. Where does that leave all of them?

The answer to that will be simple: Look for the mushroom cloud.