Thursday, March 20, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Mercury

Cover story: Hollywood's Super Bowl

Chicago set to take home Oscar gold

By Bob Grimm

After about 35 years of shunning musicals, it appears almost certain that Oscar is ready to sing and dance again.

It was in 1968 that Oliver! won the Oscar for Best Picture, part of what had been a long-running tradition of the Academy Awards smiling upon films featuring sunny actors and actresses lip-synching catchy tunes. In the '60s alone, 40 percent of the Best Picture winners were musicals (West Side Story, The Sound of Music, My Fair Lady and Oliver!). Since then, a couple of musicals have been nominated, including Fiddler on the Roof and last year's unique Moulin Rouge, but no Best Picture Oscars.

Now that Chicago has swept the Golden Globes, scored some big wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and netted a Directors Guild Award for first-time director Rob Marshall over sentimental favorite Martin Scorsese, the film seems unstoppable. The movie has a total of 13 Oscar nominations, most of any film this year. In a time of great political and international tension, it seems that critics, audiences and voters are suddenly okay with a film where the main characters just bust out singing.

"I can't stand musicals!" How many times have you heard that popular condemnation? This year, the genre that has seemingly turned so many people off for so long (barring the commercial successes of Grease and Moulin Rouge) stands to not only triumph on award night, but obliterate its competition. And yet it's the weakest of the films nominated for the honor of 2002's best. More on that later.

Let us not forget, Oscar can be very quirky, and sometimes does its own thing. I have my own list of personal bests for 2002, and some of them were not included in the nominations. Nevertheless, the roster of nominated films is actually an impressive one, with none of the major category nominations being outrageously erroneous such as, say, Sean Penn's nomination last year for I Am Sam.

Kudos to producers of the Academy Awards telecast, who have once again secured the excellent Steve Martin for hosting duties (No more Whoopi!). I'm sure he will do a fine job, as long as he doesn't opt for a live stage re-enactment of his nightmarish Bringing Down the House dry-hump scene with that film's co-star, Queen Latifah (Oscar nominee for Chicago).

For the following prelude to Sunday's event, the nominees are listed in order of my perceived chances for them to win, from best to least.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York

Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Adrien Brody, The Pianist

Michael Caine, The Quiet American

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation

It was in my year-end wrapup article that I joked about Daniel Day-Lewis, advising readers not to expect the reclusive star's presence at this year's ceremonies. I thought his recent denouncements of Hollywood and repeated retirement warnings would render him unwilling to sit around in a tuxedo, smiling for ABC's cameras and hobnobbing with the likes of Gwyneth Paltrow.

Since that article, Day-Lewis has shown up at both the Golden Globes (where he lost to Nicholson) and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where he triumphed), all shaven-headed with a big, boyish grin on his face. He seems to be eating this stuff up, and has announced plans for future films.

Without a doubt, he has moved back into the position of frontrunner for his astonishing turn as Bill the Butcher in Gangs of New York. This is as things should be, for his performance was the year's best in this category.

If Day-Lewis is unfairly passed over, Nicholson will take the award home and tie Katherine Hepburn's record of four Oscar wins. Academy voters can be sentimental, and the record might be on their minds, but Nicholson has a bunch of movies left in him, and probably will tie that record in future years.

Huge props to Nicolas Cage for career-best work as twin screenwriters in Adaptation, and Adrien Brody gained some newfound respect with an awesome display in The Pianist. The Academy did an overall good job with this category, with the exception of Michael Caine's presence. Although very good as a lovelorn journalist in The Quiet American, there were performances far more deserving in 2002.

Snubs: While he stood no chance of getting noticed, Sam Rockwell was amazing in George Clooney's Confessions of a Dangerous Mind. It would've been nice to see Leonardo DiCaprio get a nod for Catch Me If You Can, his best screen work since, yes, I'll say it, his great performance in Titanic.

Should Win: Day-Lewis deserves it over Nicholson. Will Win: Day-Lewis gets another reason to avoid early retirement.

Best Actress

Renée Zellweger, Chicago

Nicole Kidman, The Hours

Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven

Salma Hayek, Frida

Diane Lane, Unfaithful

There was a time when I thought Julianne Moore was a lock for Best Actress this year, but now I see her a distant third in the running. Chicago has the momentum, and Zellweger's surprising turn as Roxie the man-killer, complete with decent toe tapping and singing pipes, has her in the position of favorite. Nicole Kidman's remarkable performance in The Hours seems to be the only other true contender. History has not treated Kidman well at the Oscars, though, and I'm not betting that this year will be any different.

Salma Hayek was decent enough in Frida, but she doesn't stand a chance in a film that got mixed reviews. Ditto Diane Lane, who delivered a fascinating performance in Unfaithful, a so-so picture.

Snubs: Would've been great to see Maggie Gyllenhaal pull down a nom for the bondage fable Secretary, but that would've been nothing short of an Oscar miracle. Susan Sarandon deserved kudos for her portrayal of a mother mourning the loss of a child in the underrated Moonlight Mile.

Should Win: Julianne Moore was riveting, easily scoring the best performance in this category. Naturally, she will be sent home empty-handed.

Will Win: Renée Zellweger, unless the Oscar hex is lifted off Kidman, who should be next in line after Moore.

Best Supporting Actor

John C. Reilly, Chicago

Chris Cooper, Adaptation

Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can

Paul Newman, Road to Perdition

Ed Harris, The Hours

This category could go in any direction. Walken got the SAG award, so that makes him the frontrunner, although not a lock. Still, Reilly was one lovable goofball in Chicago, and that could be enough to put him over. Cooper seemed destined to take this award as of a month ago, but his toothless turn in Adaptation seems to have lost momentum, as has the film.

Snubs: The year's biggest snubs occurred in this category. Miramax pushed Richard Gere of Chicago for a Best Actor nomination, but would've been wise to submit him in this category, where he would've likely gained notice. Dennis Quaid not getting a nomination for his performance as a conflicted gay man in Far from Heaven constitutes this year's nastiest Oscar crime. Dermot Mulroney was fall-down funny in About Schmidt, an acting performance that transcended his mullet wig.

Should Win: Cooper and Walken were both magnificent, so either winning would be a nice thing.

Will Win: A tight race, but I give the edge to Reilly, who had a big year with Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Good Girl and The Hours.

Best Supporting Actress

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Meryl Streep, Adaptation

Julianne Moore, The Hours

Kathy Bates, About Schmidt

Queen Latifah, Chicago

Double nominee Julianne Moore, nominated here for her heartbreaking work in The Hours, looks destined to be a double loser this year, and that's a shame. Still, Zeta-Jones was a dazzling superstar in Chicago, and this award appears to be hers for the taking.

That's not to say hers was the best work in this category. That distinction belongs to Kathy Bates, who surpassed herself as the freewheeling divorcee in About Schmidt. If my personal preferences were to prevail, Streep would also take home the award before Zeta-Jones for her offbeat work in Adaptation.

I liked Queen Latifah in Chicago, but hers was probably the weakest of the headlining roles in that movie.

Snubs: Hope Davis, Bates' co-star in About Schmidt; Susan Sarandon as the bad mother in Igby Goes Down.

Should win: Bates

Will win: Zeta-Jones

Best Screenplay (Original)

Far from Heaven

Talk to Her

Y Tu Mamá También

Gangs of New York

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Two foreign films got noticed here after technicalities kept them out of the Best Foreign Film running. The frontrunner in this category would be Todd Haynes' Far from Heaven, which should receive some consolation here for the various snubs it suffered, and will suffer throughout the evening (Best Director, Best Picture, Dennis Quaid, Moore's inevitable loss).

Should Win: Far from Heaven

Will Win: Far from Heaven

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

The Hours

Adaptation

The Pianist

Chicago

About a Boy

David Hare's spellbinding adaptation of The Hours should prevail here, one of the few awards it will take home Oscar night. However, Adaptation is the better screenplay, so a win here would be appropriate.

Should Win: Adaptation

Will Win: The Hours

Best Original Song

"The Hands that Built America," U2, Gangs of New York

"Father and Daughter," Paul Simon, The Wild Thornberrys Movie

"Lose Yourself," Eminem, 8 Mile

"I Move On," John Kandner and Fred Ebb, Chicago

"Burn It Blue," Elliot Goldenthal, Frida

Were Paul Simon's song in something other than a film called The Wild Thornberrys Movie, he would be the frontrunner for his cute little fatherhood ditty. As it stands, U2's grandiose track, written specifically for Scorsese's movie, should triumph.

Should win: U2

Will win: U2

Best Animated Feature

Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron

Spirited Away

Lilo & Stitch

Ice Age

Treasure Planet

And the award for this year's worst nomination goes to...Treasure Planet! Disney's attempt at a hip take on Treasure Island was a bust commercially and critically, and an Oscar nomination stands as a testament to the amazing swaying powers of the Mouse. Incidentally, Disney is also the American distributor for the well-done Japanese animé Spirited Away, with Lilo & Stitch also being one of its properties.

Should Win: Spirited Away, if only for its originality

Will Win: Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron might steal this one. I just don't see Academy voters getting all worked up over Japanese animé. A cartoon drenched with sappy Bryan Adams songs stands a better chance.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Rob Marshall, Chicago

Stephen Daldry, The Hours

Roman Polanski, The Pianist

Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her

I've never been an advocate of giving an Oscar for sentimentality...until now. Scorsese made a great movie with Gangs of New York, and while I would argue that Stephen Daldry did a slightly better directing job with The Hours, Scorsese deserves an Oscar.

Gangs of New York is an excellent movie, but some critics have branded it a mess. Rob Marshall is probably his stiffest competition with Chicago, his feature directing debut. It's a good movie, but one with many flaws, especially from a directing standpoint. Passages of the film are choppy, too dark and awkwardly staged. Scorsese's work on Gangs is consistently better.

Snubs: George Clooney for his directing debut, Confessions of a Dangerous Mind; Spike Jonze for his wonderfully weird Adaptation; Peter Jackson for the year's best movie, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. They better throw an Oscar at the man for The Return of the King.

Should Win: Miramax's bizarre Oscar campaign for Scorsese is hurting his chances, but it still would be shocking to see the Academy pass up another chance to honor the guy.

Will Win: God willing...Scorsese.

Best Picture

Chicago

The Hours

The Pianist

Gangs of New York

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

While Moulin Rouge was a musical that probably baffled many Academy voters, Chicago is a more straightforward, traditional movie musical. While I put forth the argument that this film is the weakest nominated in this category, it is a good film, and its inevitable win will not raise my ire.

Truthfully, I don't think any other film stands a chance against Chicago, but in my little fantasy world, The Two Towers would triumph, and give Oscar fans the world over a collective heart attack.

Snubs: Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and Adaptation were two of the year's best, and deserved recognition.

Should Win: In an ideal Oscar world, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, would claim victory.

Will Win: Chicago, with only the slightest chance of The Hours staging an upset.

Other predictions:

Best Cinematography: Road to Perdition

Best Editing: The Hours

Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine

Foreign Language Film: Nowhere in Africa

Sound Editing: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Sound: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Costume Design: Chicago

Original Score: Far from Heaven

Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Makeup: Frida