Thursday, May 01, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Mercury

Cover story: Donkey business

Democrats expect presidential contenders to focus on Nevada in 2004

By Bob Shemeligian

If Al Gore had carried Nevada, he would be president today. This painful fact about the 2000 presidential election will not be forgotten by Democratic Party leaders in 2004 as they turn their focus to Nevada--one of a dozen "swing states" that could go either way in a close election.

"If the last presidential election taught us anything, it's that every electoral vote counts, and now that Nevada has five electoral votes instead of four, there's one more reason to take us more seriously," says veteran Las Vegas political consultant Dan Hart.

But local Democrats want more than to be taken seriously--they want to win in 2004. To do so, they must work harder--much harder than they did in 2000, when George W. Bush carried Nevada by more than 20,000 votes. And in 2004, the challenge facing Democrats will be tougher--to unseat a popular Republican incumbent.

"Just from a presidential perspective, we're a player, as we were very much a player in the second Clinton race," says Las Vegas political consultant Gary Gray, who served as President Bill Clinton's Nevada campaign coordinator in his successful 1996 race. "We've become a targeted state by the Democrats, and we need to energize our base."

Indeed, area Democrats already are laying the groundwork to ensure a Nevada victory in the next presidential election. Two priorities: working to increase voter registration, especially among minorities, and working to help elect and re-elect Democratic state and congressional leaders.

"We're going to have to be very smart with targeting," says state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, who stresses that Democratic leaders should make a concentrated effort to focus on groups of voters who historically do not have high registration percentages, such as the growing Hispanic population. "We can't wait until a few months before the election. We have to start now, and there must be a coordinated effort from top to bottom. We must all work together [to support Democratic candidates] in our Assembly, Senate and congressional races."

Most important, Titus says, is ensuring the re-election of Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. As minority whip, Reid is the second most powerful Democrat in the Senate. Only Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., is more powerful among Democrats.

Until recently, Reid was relatively unknown to many outside Nevada. But today the veteran Democrat is a national figure who wields enormous power.

Still, history shows that Reid is not invincible. In 1998, Reid squeaked by Republican challenger John Ensign by about 400 votes in one of the closest Senate races in recent state history. Two years later, Ensign was elected to Nevada's other Senate seat.

Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., is considered to be Reid's strongest potential challenger. A recent Republican poll shows Reid leading Gibbons 48 percent to 40 percent. Gibbons, a four-term congressman from Reno, says he plans to decide by the end of this summer whether he will take on Reid next year.

"We face several tasks in 2004," says political consultant Gray. "We need to bring this state into play in the presidential campaign, and it's critical that we re-elect Harry Reid. In addition, we have to re-elect Shelley Berkley to Congress and give [Republican Rep.] Jon Porter a run for his money--if not take him out."

Democratic officials say no contest in 2004 will be considered lightly, considering the independent mindsets of the Silver State's voters. "We're politically schizophrenic," Titus says. "On one hand we have some real libertarian policies, and on the other hand our government is a nanny state, telling us what we can or cannot do. And on top of that the voters are pretty evenly divided."

Jim Mulhall, communications strategist for the Democratic National Committee, says Nevada will be a key battleground in 2004. "There isn't a map in the country that doesn't have Nevada down as a swing state, and after the 2000 election there isn't a political operative in the country that doesn't have seared into his brain that every vote counts," says Mulhall. "Democrats running for president will campaign very hard for Nevada votes, and I think both George Bush and the Democratic nominee will consider Nevada in play and campaign for those votes. But this will be difficult for Bush, who basically has ignored the will of the voters, not only Democratic, but also Republicans, by forcing on them Yucca Mountain, despite his promises to be fair to the state and to carefully evaluate the scientific merits. Instead, he has rammed it through and has ignored the governor, who is a Republican, and he has basically said, `Nevada be damned.'"

One shadow that will be looming over Democrats in 2004 is the political clout of second-term Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn. "It certainly doesn't help," Titus says. "But we'll see how popular he is after this legislative session--after all the tax issues [are decided]."

Nevada Democrats believe that despite the presence of a Republican governor, Democrats will make a strong showing in 2004, and they expect Democratic presidential candidates to spend more time in the Silver State than they did in 2000. "That is absolutely correct," Gray says. "When I look back at the effort the Gore team made here, frankly, I thought it was halfhearted. We understand that in a presidential race, you have to cover so much ground that no one is anywhere for very long. But I do expect the next candidate to be more competitive in swing states."

Hart agrees that the next Democrat who runs for president will devote more time and resources to capturing Nevada. "You have to remember that Nevada is one of the most urbanized states in the country," Hart says. "About 85 percent of the voters are in Las Vegas and Reno, and so this state is easy to work."

It's also lucrative. Las Vegas has long been a favorite place for political candidates to make a quick stopover, attend a fundraiser, and pick up campaign contributions. At least two Democratic presidential hopefuls have made brief stops in Las Vegas for just that purpose. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri have attended local fundraisers in recent weeks.

"They come here for the money," says Hart, who adds that as the race for the nation's highest office heats up, he expects the Democratic nominee to visit Nevada more frequently and to stay longer--in an effort to win votes, not just campaign cash. Hart says such a scenario could be problematic for Bush considering local opposition to the proposed nuclear waste dump at Yucca Mountain--a project spearheaded by the Republican administration.

Gray expects more auxiliary activities as the presidential race heats up. "They [the Democrats] would set up perhaps one or two offices in the state, and not a lot of staff, but they would be calling the press and alerting them to events such as an appearance or a nurses' rally or a labor demonstration, and so on."

As for the candidates themselves, they have begun to call attention to themselves by touting various agendas consistent with Democratic platforms such as labor and health care reform and aid for education. If they share one thing, it's their passion for attacks on President Bush as being "out of touch with the real America."

The candidates range from Kerry, who is on the best financial footing with more than $8 million and has the support of Wall Street as well as the nation's most prominent law firms, to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a country doctor who wears well-worn suits, flies coach and prefers to bunk at the homes of supporters rather than expensive hotels. There is also North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who is emerging as a champion of issues affecting the daily lives of Americans.

"We have an interesting dynamic in the race for president," Hart says. "Kerry is the frontrunner, but Edwards, although he's young, has demonstrated an ability to raise money and he is a wild card. On the other hand, Dean has a message with some resonance, and he seems to be getting back to the traditional values of Democrats."

But at least one local lawmaker questions whether any top-ranking Democrat is touting the true Democratic Party platform.

"The Democrats need to get an agenda, and we really haven't had one since the Kennedy-Johnson years, when the focus was on civil rights and the war on poverty," says Assemblyman Wendell Williams, D-Las Vegas, who believes it's a lack of focus on these and other core Democratic issues such as public education, health care and equal opportunity that helped defeat Gore in 2000.

To some extent the political consultants agree with Williams. Gray notes that while Democrats continue to battle Bush on many viable issues such as benefits for seniors, education and environmental protection, Democrats also tend to get involved in seemingly unwinnable battles such as gun control. "We're not going to change anybody's mind on gun ownership," Gray says. Especially in Nevada.

But Hart says the move away from historic Democratic platforms toward the middle was begun in the early 1990s by Clinton, who attempted to reach out more to the middle class.

"It was Bill Clinton who taught us once again how to win elections," Hart says.