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Thursday, January 01, 2004 Cover story: Extended forecastPredictions for 2004
Here are some things we guarantee will happen worldwide in 2004: ¥ Violence and conflict in the Middle East. ¥ Violence and conflict in Iraq. ¥ Terrorism threats real and imagined. ¥ Earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes. ¥ Summer blockbusters will get bad reviews, big crowds. ¥ Increasingly bizarre and badly conceived reality TV shows will dominate prime-time ratings. ¥ Health experts will bemoan the alarming obesity of American children. ¥ Nabisco will offer an array of new types of Oreos. ¥ Somewhere in America, authorities will discover an elderly woman dead in her mobile home, surrounded by 150 very hungry cats. And here are some things we guarantee will happen locally in 2004: ¥ Oscar Goodman will campaign for downtown redevelopment, drink gin. ¥ Celine Dion will draw packed audiences, inexplicably. ¥ A flash flood will cause somebody to be rescued in the nick of time from the top of their quickly submerging car. ¥ Outrageous zoning changes will outrage residents in various parts of the valley. ¥ Pictures of people you don't know will appear on billboards holding large checks. ¥ The homeless will be cold in the winter. By contrast, we can't guarantee the predictions that follow. We can, however, promise that we did a little research (thanks, Google!) and made a few phone calls before drafting these prognosticatory tidbits.
HOT ISSUES
Growth: More but not merrier 2004 will be another year of rapid growth for Las Vegas. All the big resort companies are expanding their properties. Leading the pack is Steve Wynn's $2 billion Wynn Las Vegas, which is slated to open in April 2005. This construction spree will create lots of jobs. The newly employed workers will want housing, which will drive residential construction, and they will need services, which will drive commercial development. At the same time, there are no signs that Las Vegas will evolve from its service-driven economy anytime soon. This means most of these new jobs will be relatively low-paying and lacking in sufficient benefits. This means more people without health insurance filling up University Medical Center. This influx of new residents also means more traffic congestion, more school crowding, more sprawl and more water consumption. Ultimately, this will result in the need for more tax revenues for education, roads and other bare-minimum public services. Isn't prosperity great?--Geoff Schumacher
Yucca: Dump gets dumped The proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump will go away. That tunnel the Department of Energy reamed into a poor Nevada mountain's backside? Gone, sealed with a kiss-my-ass from Nevada's legal team. Those pro-waste tours of the prospective site, designed to sway even the most rancorous average citizen? Stalled, outta fuel. This is the hope that springs new-year green from the Carson City office of Bob Loux, director of Nevada's Agency for Nuclear Projects. "We're going to win at least three out of four" of the lawsuits filed against the project to store nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain, says Loux. One, against the DOE, is a consolidation of three lawsuits. Loux says we'll win that one. Another, against the EPA, we'll win. And we'll win the one against the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. We might not win the one against the United States seeking to have declared unconstitutional the July 2002 Congressional Joint Resolution that approved the Yucca Mountain site. A win of any one of these cases "could set the program back several years," says Loux. But if we win in particular the DOE case or the EPA case, "then the whole site could go away." Oral arguments on the cases, to be heard in court together, will take place Jan. 14, and the decisions could come by June.--Heidi Walters
The drought: Drop that sponge and bucket, mister! The drought will continue. The water shortage will worsen. In response, the Las Vegas Valley Water District, having officially declared Southern Nevada in a stage of Drought Alert, will impose further restrictions on turf, watering, car washing and decorative fountains at businesses and residences (but not the sacred Strip). Residents will surreptitiously keep watering their lawns more than allowed and washing their cars at home with the banned, low-pressure, cheap nozzles. They'll complain bitterly. The water district will talk about easing up on the homefolks. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Land Management will auction off more valley land to developers in an ever-more-gluttonous frenzy. Developers will build. The Southern Nevada PR Machine will continue to spread the word that Vegas is a great place to move to--cheap land, cheap houses, cheap cheap cheap. And jobs. They'll carefully avoid discussing the, um, desert (except to point out pretty Red Rock Canyon and the ever-loving sun) and its occasional long and painful droughts that wither Midwest-style lawns. People will keep coming. The water authorities will continue to frighten people with talk of water rationing. They also will apply more pressure toward wringing water from the rural north. Finally, in a fit of contrition for being among the top 100 residential water consumers, George Maloof will offer to become the poster boy for the Southern Nevada Water Authority's water conservation campaign. Scotch (no water), babe?--Heidi Walters
U.S. 95: Got road rage? Las Vegas has a love-hate relationship with U.S. 95--and in 2004, expect the needle to tip toward "hate." The widening project that got under way late last year will continue well through September 2005, making 2004 a "banner year" for construction on U.S. 95, according Nevada Department of Transportation spokesperson Bob Mckenzie. The biggest headache will come during the demolition and replacement of the Rainbow Bridge, which will require several closures of U.S. 95 and elaborate detours. What you'll eventually get for your trouble: 10 lanes of freeway to the Spaghetti Bowl. In the meantime, stock up on audiobooks.--Andrew Kiraly
ONGOING STORIES
Red Rock Station: Tower of casino power We may know as soon as next week how this prediction turns out. Station Casinos wants to build a resort in Summerlin that includes a 300-foot tower. Station is currently permitted to build only a 100-foot tower, so it needs County Commission approval to go higher. Hundreds of Summerlin residents have organized an aggressive campaign to oppose Station's request, arguing that a 300-foot tower would ruin their views of Red Rock Canyon and would be incompatible with surrounding neighborhoods. After a long hearing several weeks ago, the commission delayed a decision until its Jan. 7 meeting. In the meantime, the commission ordered Station execs and Summerlin residents to work on a compromise. Since then, Station has agreed to shrink its tower to 270 feet while the residents have agreed to 130 feet. So much for that. The county commissioners are scared to death of this issue. They receive lots of campaign money and other political support from Station Casinos, but the opposition movement in Summerlin has grown large and loud. We predict the commission will aim for a compromise height that makes neither side completely happy, probably in the 150- to 200-foot range. This will allow Station to build the big resort it envisions at Charleston and I-215, while the residents will feel they were able to make a difference.--Geoff Schumacher
Corruption probe: G-Sting II: The Reckoning The FBI investigation into alleged political corruption will expand to include at least one other elected official. Federal agents will try to find out if the official offered to perform political favors in exchange for large wads of cash from the owners of topless nightclubs. A very prominent Las Vegas attorney could also be named as an alleged bagman for this official. A second wave of indictments connected to G-Sting will likely mention a minimum of two well-known Las Vegas development executives.--George Knapp
Nye County: G-Sting Jr. A smaller corruption probe in Nye County will make waves. Federal authorities will allege that current and former Nye officials conspired to rig elections by filling out bogus ballots on behalf of professional prostitutes who once lived and worked in Pahrump. The FBI probe will reach far beyond rigged elections however, and will expose a wide pattern of corruption and cronyism, some of it involving certain legal brothels.--George Knapp
Monorail: All aboard The Strip monorail will debut in March to great fanfare. National newspapers and magazines will be on hand for the inaugural run, and the local media will go ga-ga over it. As well they should. The monorail is a big deal. It will be a hoot and a help to millions of tourists, and it also will be useful for thousands of resort workers. It should put a dent in Strip traffic congestion, as well as doing its part to reduce air pollution. The monorail's full potential, however, will not be realized until links to downtown and the airport are completed over the next several years.--Geoff Schumacher
Fremont Street Experience: Going 2.0 Say what you will about the Fremont Street Experience, but it saved Fremont Street. If the downtown casinos had not banded together in the early '90s to build the lighted canopy and implement other improvements along Fremont Street, some of them, at least, would have closed and a whole lot fewer tourists and locals would spend time and money in the historic downtown resort corridor. But while Fremont Street survives, the light show is showing its age. Again showing their foresight, the downtown casinos are investing $16 million in new technology to bring the show into the 21st century. In the spring, this project will be unveiled, providing new reasons to venture downtown. The new technology will allow television-like images to be displayed, from breaking news to live concerts to the Super Bowl. This will be a vast and intriguing improvement over the fairly primitive images now available on the overhead canopy. Once that project is completed and under way, perhaps the Fremont Street brain trust can focus on ways to invigorate Neonopolis.--Geoff Schumacher
Homeowners associations: Revolt in the 'burbs Homeowners may see a decade-long uproar over community associations go critical this year. A newly appointed commission will have the power to remove miscreant board members and fine them out of their own pockets. It's the toughest legislation ever passed on this issue and comes in response to near chaos in many associations. The common interest communities ombudsman's office has over the past four years exploded from one person to a staff of 14 to handle the crush of complaints, which are coming in at the rate of about 80 calls a day. Each complaint has to be investigated, consuming endless man-hours. Complaints involving more than 100 such associations are currently under review. And some of the violators have openly defied suggestions that they obey the laws. It's a safe bet that some offending board members will be stripped of their titles, while others will find their pocketbooks a little lighter. Whether that will help matters is debatable, since many believe the governing structure is flawed, with amateurs on boards who don't understand or care about state laws. Add to that the new housing developments--most are associations--and it's a good guess the sheer number of problems will grow. But punishing board members could harden feelings between them and homeowners, exacerbating long-standing feuds.--Larry Wills
Bigelow aerospace project: It's...a floating space condo Hotel chain owner Robert Bigelow of Las Vegas, whose interest in the privatization of outer space was profiled in the Mercury last year, has dropped a cone of silence over his aerospace operation, but that will be lifted in 2004 and locals will be bowled over when they learn what's been happening here in their own back yard. Bigelow isn't talking at all about his plans for the development of a revolutionary space habitat, but we predict the new year will result in blockbuster revelations about the progress being made at his secretive North Las Vegas aerospace facility. It's not too much of a stretch to also predict that NASA bigshots will play a prominent role in the eventual release from the Bigelow organization.--George Knapp
Casino expansion: Welcome to fabulous Macau, China Sheldon Adelson's investment in a Macau casino will be such an overwhelming success that Adelson and rival Steve Wynn will step up their timetables for the construction of additional Macanese resorts. Adelson's first Macau operation is slated to open in March. The take from diehard Chinese gamblers will be even higher than anyone could predict. Adelson could announce more specific plans for as many as a dozen additional Macanese resorts.--George Knapp
Wynn, Trump: Clash of the titans Steve Wynn will announce plans for a second hotel to be built on the Desert Inn site, a resort that would face inward, toward his new golf course, rather than outward toward the Strip. This will necessitate the implosion of the remaining portions of the D.I. Wynn's D.I. development will likely include a huge mountain, a mountain that reportedly will have elevators on the inside. Across the street, don't be surprised to hear about Trump Las Vegas, a megaresort to be developed by Donald Trump and Phil Ruffin. This would probably require the implosion of the venerable Frontier and, for the first time, could make Trump a major player in Nevada.--George Knapp
Jean airport: The not-so-friendly skies A massive lawsuit involving numerous Nevada heavyweights and centering on a proposed airport near Jean will explode into the public consciousness and will be a major embarrassment for Clark County and its Department of Aviation. Litigation could stretch on for years and could put taxpayers at risk for millions of dollars in damages.--George Knapp
Sahara: Sold to locals chain Owners of the Sahara Hotel will find themselves the object of desire for several high-profile business suitors during the coming year. Anyone who buys the Sahara would also acquire large tracts of Strip-adjacent land. Gaming operators previously known for their "locals" casinos might use the Sahara to get their first foothold on the Strip.--George Knapp
POLITICS
Election '04: Nevada nods to Bush George W. Bush will carry Nevada. It may end up being only the second time in a century that Nevada gives its electoral votes to the losing presidential candidate--once back in 1908, and the other time when it supported the losing candidate, Bush, in 2000. But this will be another close election, so chances actually are good that Bush will win; if not, his brother will find a way to carry Florida for him again.--Michael Green
Nevada politics '04: Muddy but fun ¥ Bob Beers--ringleader of last year's infamous "Mean 15"--will win Senate District 6 after a nasty primary battle with incumbent Ray Rawson. Despite Rawson's solid record--which even some Democrats respect--won't resonate with voters in the largely Republican district as much as Beers' strident reminder that Rawson--oooh, that closet liberal!--voted for the $836 million tax increase. Rawson will defend valiantly with a pro-education message and an established base of support, but Beers will take the day. ¥ County Commissioner Chip Maxfield: buh-bye. Stung by his non-stance on the proposed Red Rock Station, which lies just outside his district, disgruntled Summerlinites will oust the one-term commissioner in favor of, well, whoever can best expose his shitty voting record when it comes to growth issues. Expect the race to get a little muddy, with Maxfield getting portrayed as developers' and casinos' bitch--sorta like contender Jerry Tao is already doing. ¥ County Commissioner Mary Kincaid-Chauncey will get the boot in a primary battle by veteran Assemblywoman Vonne Chowning. Chowning will barely break a sweat, having only to remind voters that Kincaid-Chauncey is facing federal charges of extortion, fraud and conspiracy--and that she stepped down from her post as County Commission chairwoman only at the persistent whispering of her fellow commissioners. Chowning will win the seat in the largely Democratic district--and wisely avoid strip club moguls and disgraced commissioners-turned-bagmen toting large duffel bags filled with cash. ¥ Incumbent Republican Sen. Ray Shaffer will defend a challenge from well-groomed Democratic candidate John Lee. Lee will mobilize the district's largely Mormon following and paint Shaffer as a good old boy and party-switcher, but to no avail--despite the fact Lee has said he's running at the encouragement of Sen. Harry Reid. Then again, these days, that could be considered a kiss of death.--Andrew Kiraly ¥ The four federal incumbents up for re-election--Sen. Harry Reid and Reps. Shelley Berkley, Jim Gibbons and Jon Porter--will cruise to victory, although Reid's victory will be closer than expected and Porter will sweat a bit because Democrats will find at least a decent candidate at the last minute. ¥ The Board of Regents will be about as big an issue in the coming legislative campaign as taxes. That, combined with Culinary and teachers union attacks on the "Mean 15" who screwed up the 2003 session, will help Democrats. The state Senate will stay Republican, with Democrats cutting the majority; the Assembly will stay Democratic, but it will go down to the wire. Regent Tom Kirkpatrick will be defeated if he runs for re-election. Wendell Williams will be re-elected and again chair the Education Committee after a big internal party fight in which Speaker Richard Perkins will stand by him. ¥ A scandal will rock the Las Vegas City Council--or at least two of its members. Mayor Oscar Goodman will take some shots for it but suffer no damage and not even really be connected with it; the only person who will keep bringing it up is Jon Ralston. But the trouble will end up affecting a couple of former city employees, none of whom is named Wendell Williams.--Michael Green
ARTS AND CULTURE
The Killers: Say you knew 'em before they were huge To meet the demands of Spring Breakers, Island Def Jam will rush to release local glam-rockers The Killers' debut record by the beginning of March. The premier single, "On Top," will prove a moderate MTV hit, and the album will find stubborn roots in the middle third of the Billboard 200. Desspite The Killers' success--or perhaps because of it--the critical response to the album will be mixed. The Guardian will describe it as "a hand-clapping new-wave revival." In other publications, unfavorable comparisons to Duran Duran will abound, and at least one American review will end with the phrase, "All that glitters isn't gold." In the fall, The Killers will open an L.A. show with the Vines, and lead singer Brandon Flowers will deny leaving the event with Paris Hilton.--Newt Briggs
Baseball stadium: Build it and they might come The deal will go through to build a new baseball stadium for the Las Vegas AAA team, so the Dodgers will remain committed to Las Vegas--or at least to Henderson. They will, however, look for a new radio station due to fan complaints about the sexual content of the ads that run during the broadcasts on 1140-AM.--Michael Green
Sig and Roy: Sign o' the times In a decision that will be heralded as the cat's meow, MGM Mirage officials will decide to leave the Siegfried & Roy marquee that overlooks the Strip in place indefinitely. Given animal trainer Roy Horn's slow march down the road to recovery and the iconic stature of the duo to the entertainment community in this town, few Las Vegans or exotic cats will picket the property in protest.--Barbara Scherzer
Mirage: Goodbye big cats, hello big top Sometime during the first half of the year, the Mirage will announce its new production show. To no one's surprise, Cirque du Soleil will once again fly into new digs on the Strip, bringing the total number of ongoing Cirque shows in this city to five. The good news is that if your teenagers want to try out for a circus career, you can always drop them off at the nearest Big Top on your way to work.--Barbara Scherzer
Downtown: Hitting its stride Downtown redevelopment will continue to gain momentum, fueled by business, homeowners and cultural and arts organizations. But most importantly, Mayor Goodman will successfully convince the Cleveland Clinic to place its proposed $500 million, 195-bed medical center on the 61 acres west of downtown. Second most importantly, First Friday poet-for-hire Gregory Crosby will finally write those verses we paid him for.--Andrew Kiraly
Neighborhoods: Hip to be central Interest in centrally located neighborhoods will increase exponentially. Mayor Oscar Goodman, actor Jerry Lewis, in-the-news local businessmen Jack Galardi and Bob Stupak, and bigwig attorneys John F. O'Reilly and Ed Bernstein--just to name a very few--all live within minutes of Goodman's emerging downtown renaissance, and for good reason. Entertainer Phyllis McGuire is within walking distance of a grocery store, a Starbucks, a medical center and luxuriates on a park-like plot that would swallow almost 30 $300,000 Summerlin McMansions. Watch for property values in Rancho Circle, Rancho Nevada, Scotch 80s, McNeil Estates, John S. Park and other urban hotspots to shoot through the roof as downtown living becomes hipper than it always has been.--James P. Reza
Vegas film: Keeping it reel The multiplexes will be full of the usual, tired Hollywood suspects. But athough film fans can enjoy the prospect of more indie flicks, now the Suncoast's CinéArts program is competing with the Village Square (hitherto the valley's only de facto art house), whether the CineVegas film festival will return next summer, for its sixth edition, depends largely on the continued largesse of principal sponsor Danny Greenspun, who hired Sundance programmer Trevor Groth to program the 2002 and '03 events. Meanwhile, film fest aficionados will not be bereft: The Las Vegas Celebration of Jewish Film returns to the Suncoast Jan. 15 (details: www.desertspace.org), while the Mercury's own short film festival is slated for late May and the pay-to-play New York International Independent Film and Video Festival is tentatively due to return in July.--Anthony Allison |
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