Thursday, January 22, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Mercury

CAMPAIGN 2004: Primary motivation

Armed with a low-tax platform, Bob Beers aims to grab Ray Rawson's state Senate seat

By Andrew Kiraly

"It's just a little old neighborhood political race," says Assemblyman Bob Beers. "I don't know why everyone's making such a big deal out of it."

Aw, shucks. Well, whether or not the Republican legislator is being ironic, plenty of pols, campaign flacks and political junkies think otherwise about this year's race for state Senate District 6.

First, there's the primary, which pits Beers, a tech-savvy anti-taxer and poster boy for legislative constipation, against veteran lawmaker Ray Rawson, a dentist who doesn't return phone calls. Whoever wins this face-off steps up to challenge businessman Todd Allen, a Democrat and business consultant who seems well-prepared for battle--and wouldn't look out of place in an Esquire fashion spread.

In case you've been living on Mars, Beers is widely credited with helping to orchestrate the already-legendary intransigence of the Mean 15 during last year's legislative session. Beers says last year's tax increase inflated the guv'ment to a size way out of whack with the state's economy and population, and is quick to point out that Rawson--unlike him--said yes to last year's record $836 million tax hike. While Beers says he doesn't want to sling mud during his walks around the district, he does say he gets vibes that the people are receptive to his, ahem, fiscally conservative stance.

"I spent a week ago going door to door, and I didn't once mention Rawson's taxing and spending," he says. At least not directly. "I talked [to residents] about how we in Nevada have the right idea, with a below-average-size stage government, and how I think that's the reason we have the third lowest rate of poverty in the states, and an unemployment rate a point and half lower than California. It's a better way to run a ship than the way California's run." He didn't get any standing ovations, but, he says, "Nobody said they weren't voting for me."

If he doesn't win, Beers is expected to at least give incumbent Rawson a major headache. Chalk part of it up to that poli sci textbook rule that primaries bring out the more faithful of the fold--in this case, Republicans more in tune with Beers' low-tax message. "It's an effective message for the hardcore crowd, the most fired-up," says David Damore, an assistant professor of political science at UNLV. "And, like him or not, Beers has a higher profile than your average legislator."

But dentist Rawson still has some bite. Even seasoned Dems point out his decent legislative record and established base of support.

Says Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, a Democrat: "It's going to tough for Rawson; he's never had a tough race or a nasty race," she says. But Beers may be overestimating the potency of his message that plans to paint Rawson as the Taxinator. "But by the time the election comes around, people will realize they're not really paying that much more in taxes, and it'll be up to [Rawson] to let them know what they're getting in return."

Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio agrees; the anti-tax wave that Beers expects to ride into office might turn out to be a trickle instead of a tsunami. "People now recognize there was a need [for a tax hike]," he says. "Even those who didn't vote for the tax plan knew they had to raise at least $700 to $800 million. There were only a couple [legislators] who were saying we should have no taxes whatsoever."

Beers may find he has no funding whatsoever. "The whole race boils down to Bob Beers' ability to raise a significant amount of money," says Jim Ferrence. Veteran campaign coordinator Ferrence helped steer Brian Sandoval's 2002 bid for attorney general; this year, he's working on County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury's campaign. "I have doubts that Beers will be able to do so. I think the establishment will begin to freeze him out." Tapping into voter resentment over the tax increase--a mood Ferrence sees evaporating already--is "the only chance he's got in the Republican primary."

But Beers insists that resentment is alive, and there's reason to believe him. The anti-taxer is also a techie; he keeps in touch with the Nevada zeitgeist via mouse-clicks as much as shoe leather. The speed and responsiveness of e-mail, he says, gives him richer insight into voter mood. The assemblyman has "five or six or seven" e-mail addresses, through which he keeps touch with constituents. That Pentium crystal ball tells him he's gonna win. "I rarely go more than a day without checking my e-mail, and I always respond," he says.

Whoever wins faces off with would-be freshman legislator Todd Allen. The district has about 3,300 more Republicans than Democrats, but Allen's crew says it plans to exploit a few factors. First, Allen himself will preach a message of--those magic words--fiscal conservatism, which should appeal to the district's swing voters (about 7,300 of the districts voters are nonpartisan). "And there seems to be a big anti-incumbency movement in the state," says Allen's campaign manager, Steve Pellegrino. "We feel we can take advantage of that."

Besides that, they have contingency plans for whichever Republican bags the primary--and the bloodier it is, the better for the Allen camp. If Rawson wins, they'll have history working in their favor. Pellegrino points to the 2000 election, in which Rawson won his seat over Democrat Terrie Stanfill with about 54 percent of the vote. The catch, says Pellegrino: Stanfill was "underfunded and undermanned, but she still put up a very good fight. Rawson had a war chest close to $400,000, while Stanfill had nothing." He reasons that a well-funded, well-staffed fight might tip the balance.

And if Beers wins? Pellegrino expects the resources that would've funded Rawson--including gaming and unions--to fall largely to Allen. "We can exploit Beers' history too," Pellegrino says. "He's been serving for a long time, too. I don't want to tip our hand too much, but I think we can beat either of them. We just haven't bought into the fact that because the district's been largely Republican for a long time that means that whoever wins the primary will win the general election. They're so busy jabbing at each other, they seem to be looking past us."