Getting out the vote

Nevada voters are energized. But will they still be interested 8 months from now?

By Larry Wills

Nevada politics has become a passion play this election year. How to fire up voters enough to get them off their couches and into the voting booth is no mean chore in a campaign that's spanning a full year. But local Democrats have shown considerable spirit early in the election process.

"There's a level of enthusiasm we haven't seen before," Rusty McAlester, vice president of the Professional Firefighters of Nevada, says of the Democratic Party effort.

Indeed, unlike 2000, Democrats are showing up to rallies in droves. The recent caucus in Las Vegas had to be moved from a high school gymnasium to the football field to accommodate 6,000 people. The question remains whether the large numbers driven by the uncertain outcome of the Democratic primaries will hold through November's general election. In 2000, Gore had the nomination sewn up, and many Democrats stayed home. Now, eight months before Election Day, it looks like Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has the Democratic Party bid locked up.

McAlester sees voters paying more attention than in the last election. "The interest is much better," he says.

That level of interest played heavily in 2000. Bush won Nevada by about 22,000 votes in an election that drew lackluster Democratic turnout. Only 60 percent of registered Democrats voted for Al Gore, while 75 percent of registered Republicans supported Bush. Add to that the 128,000 nonpartisan voters this year and you have a battle royal for the hearts and minds of Nevada.

"We're organizing and registering targeted groups," says former congressman James Bilbray, a Democratic Party strategist. "We want to get them to the polls. If 75 percent of the Democrats go to the polls, we will win the election."

Republicans are not sitting on their hands either. A full-blown effort is under way to garner votes door to door. The Republicans even had a presence at last weekend's NASCAR races at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Democrats are concentrating on women and minorities who lean Democratic. But they may have an uphill fight. Statewide registration shows the Republicans with a 13,000-voter advantage. That's 11,000 more conservative voters than four years go and may be because of the influx of retirees into Nevada.

But those figures may also be deceiving. Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax says about 96,000 voters were recently subtracted from the list and placed on inactive status since their residency could not be confirmed. Inactive voters, which now total 161,000, are still eligible to cast ballots, he says, if they show up at their precinct polling places.

The secretary of state reports that the Democrats have consistently held about a 30,000-vote margin in Clark County in the last year. January figures showed 230,000 registered Democrats and 201,000 Republicans in the county.

And a rush to register may be changing the equation. "We're only two months into the year and we're already receiving more registration forms than in any other year at this time," Lomax says.

What's fueling the stampede may be a withering malaise among residents who sat out previous elections. Bilbray sees the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump and other environmental issues, such as greenhouse gases and another pipeline through the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, as volatile.

Health care is another issue. McAlester says his union alone experienced a 67 percent hike in drug costs in the last year. "We have the highest percentage of people without health insurance of any state in the nation," Bilbray says. Some estimates have suggested 40 percent of Clark County's population lacks health coverage.

Democrats are also pouncing on worries about existing benefits, such as the future of Social Security and Medicare. Expect the new prescription drug bill to be hotly debated. The economy, which may be in the spotlight elsewhere, isn't expected to be a burning issue in Nevada, where jobs are relatively plentiful.

Even veterans, normally conservative, may offer surprises. The highly criticized level of VA care in Nevada may come into play. "I have Republican and Democratic friends who are upset about the way the Republicans are funding this," says Bill Brzezinski, state adjutant for the Disabled American Veterans. "We expect cuts after the election. You must care for them who have borne the battle. Now we're told, you guys go and fight and watch what I do to the veterans."

Republicans have insisted no benefits will be cut and contend the prescription drug bill is an added benefit for seniors. They forecast a rapid economic recovery and blame the mounting federal deficit on the war on terrorism. But in many areas, clearly the GOP may be on the defense.

Clark County GOP Executive Director Chris Carr discounts the criticism, saying issues such as Yucca Mountain are blown out of proportion. "I don't hear as much about that as other issues," he says. "The issues here are not different from other places: health care and the economy."

He sees the Republican base expanding in Clark County, mainly because of new residents fleeing California with its fiscal meltdown in state government. "They are sick and tired of taxes," he says.

Carr and his volunteers are going door to door to register Republicans. But he concedes that maintaining enthusiasm won't be easy since the election is still eight months away. "This seems like September 2004. That's how much energy is there. The campaign has already started." The mood of the voters will be the key, especially as it applies to the economy. "If people are happy, that will help us."

Democrats are counting on the opposite, worries about jobs and health care.

Bilbray says Democrats are not just targeting one issue in their drive to oust Bush. "You usually aren't killed by one blow or a sudden thrust," he says. "You usually die of a thousand wounds."