The next school bond

With 1998 construction bond money dwindling, school district officials mull when to approach the public for more funds

By Larry Wills

How time flies. After years of seemingly back-to-back school bond issues, voters got a decade-long reprieve. In 1998, they endorsed a bond rollover program that allocated about $2.5 billion for school construction to keep up with population growth.

That money is being spent quickly on 88 new schools, and Clark County School District officials already are looking past 2008 when the bond coffer runs dry. School officials could come back to the voters with hats in hand in less than two years. Dusty Dickens, district director of demographics, says the relentless influx of new residents is to blame.

"The next decade will bring the Clark County School District an excess of students and a shortage of seats," Dickens says. "In 2008, when the last of 88 new schools paid for through the current bond program is completed, the district still will not have sufficient classroom space to accommodate growth. We'll be immediately short on seats in 2009. We'll need about six new schools, based on our low projections for growth."

And take the word low with a grain of salt.

"We were growing two years ago only about 10,000 students a year. Now we're growing 12,000 to 14,000 a year," Dickens says. "Over the next decade, there isn't anything we're seeing that will slow that down."

Housing permits show little indication the building tempo will decrease. "We still have quite bit out there that already have been approved," she notes.

And new residents aren't the only problem. Those who have lived here for awhile are having babies, lots of them. "Our birthrate data show there were 2,700 live births more in 2002 than in 2001. Those students will be entering kindergartens in five years." Dickens says 25 to 27 percent of the Clark County population has children in the school system.

Dickens says on-the-mark growth projections in 1997 helped the district keep fairly close to the need. "The whole program was built on projections. We've stayed very close to those projections in 1997. We've been able to keep up. We built seven elementaries last year, seven this year and we'll have another seven next year."

High schools are a different matter. "Many high schools are severely overcrowded," Dickens says, noting the 30-to-1 teacher-student ratios as a problem for the secondary schools. First and second grades, in contrast, have ratios of about 16 to 1."We have 16 high schools on the building program."

Walt Rulffes, the school district's chief financial officer, says the district is looking at ways to mitigate the relatively large size of the high schools. "We build for 2,700 students. I think we would all like to see smaller schools. Our new high school prototype is to have smaller schools within the bigger schools." That prototype would allow students in certain fields to learn in a friendlier, more personal atmosphere, without having to build more smaller high school buildings.

New schools aren't the only problem. Rulffes says facilities in older neighborhoods also need to be replaced. Four years ago, the state Legislature mandated that the district replace five older schools by 2005, and Rulffes expects that trend to continue.

"New schools tend to go to new neighborhoods," he says. "There's also a need for older neighborhood to have new schools."

Dickens and Rulffes expect the district to present something similar to the 1998 bond rollover before this program expires.

"We won't increase property taxes," Dickens says. "We would roll over what's out there. It would be relatively tax-neutral."

Bond money isn't the district's only source of school construction funds. Nearly $1 billion in real estate transfer fees and hotel room taxes are expected to be raised this decade and would be included in the mix for the next construction program. And Rulffes says the bond package is tied to future growth.

"If the economy slows down, we will build fewer schools," he says. "It will wax and wane depending on the economy." And he's hopeful that some of the growth may cool down in the future. "We do see very early signs the increase may not continue at the same rate."

But that information is tentative. The district still expects to need 46 schools four years after the present bond program expires. And without more money, those schools won't be built.

Rulffes sees the key to winning voter endorsement as the credibility of the program. Five years ago, the district faced criticism over the pace and cost of construction projects, but things have improved. "We have to stand on our record. We have to display we've done everything, and it really is going well."

Year-round schedules for new elementary schools also play well with voters. Rulffes sees creative approaches in future construction, with more aggressive energy conservation and desert landscaping. "Generally, if you have credibility that dollars are being spent in a frugal way, the public is pretty good about supporting it."

The biggest selling point is in the numbers. Twelve years ago, the district had 130,000 students. This fall, it will have nearly 280,000, moving it up to fifth place among the nation's largest school districts.

Rulffes says the district has the funds to keep the program running through 2008, but political realities may move the bond campaign up two years. "We haven't decided on an approach," he says. But he prefers to have time to make a seamless transition from one bond program to another.

"We have sufficient dollars to keep us rolling through 2008 or 2009. But I don't want to rule out 2006, in the event of a bond failure. Otherwise, we don't have time to run it again. And we prefer to go on a general election. It would cost less."

Another worry is the cost. Rulffes says rising costs over the past decade could influence the amount of the bond, although rising property values could minimize the impact on property owners. "It should be equal to and potentially greater, assuming the conditions continue that exist today."

Dickens believes homeowners benefit from economic expansion in the long run, despite the need for more schools. "We all profit from growth," she contends, noting that property value increases are just one indicator. "Had we not been growing, that would not be happening."